How worried should I be about the positive result on my blood test?
Is the beetle with the rare markings actually a rare beetle?
Probability gives us the tools to model uncertainty.
It all began with gambling $🎲🎲$
Probability is a much younger branch of mathematics than geometry or algebra both of which can trace
their roots to prehistory. In fact we know exactly when mathematicians first turned their
eyes to probability: when a friend sought advice about gambling!
A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of the mathematical theory of
probability by two famous French
mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré,
a French nobleman with an
interest in gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent
contradiction concerning a popular
dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to
decide whether or not to bet even
money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly
well-established gambling rule
led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be profitable,
but his own calculations indicated
just the opposite. Source:
http://homepages.wmich.edu/~mackey/Teaching/145/probHist.html
Visual Models
This week we'll learn about the tools of probability needed to answer the Chevalier de Méré's
question, and others. There are some (simple) formulas, but the main tools are both pictures rather than equations: tree diagrams,
and Venn diagrams. Quite a change from the equation-heavy calculus we've been doing. 😅
Monday. "Simple" probability, which is enough to answer the Chevalier's question.
Wednesday. Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem which will let us decide about that medical test and the beetle.
Friday. Reading break begins ⇒ no class 😔. We'll see how to use Venn diagrams to organize our data to help us calculate probabilities after the reading break.
Thursday is the last day to withdraw without academic penalty!
If you are still in the course on Friday you will receive a final grade in it.
That grade will appear on your transcript.
Make sure it will be one you can live with!
If not, withdrawing may be your best course of action. #dodgethatbullet 😅
(If you are registered in Math 120 that is. If you are registered in ALES 291 you have until
April 3 to withdraw, but it's really not in your interest to wait that long to make the
decision.)
